Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Hoffenheim host Hamburger SV in Bundesliga matchweek 5: Sat 10 Oct, 15:30 CEST (10 Oct 22:30 KST) at PreZero Arena. Referee not yet appointed at time of writing.
The last 4 league meetings: Hoffenheim 3 wins, 0 draws, Hamburg 1 wins; the most recent was Hamburg 1–2 Hoffenheim in 2026/04. Last five games in all competitions: Hoffenheim W1 D0 L4, Hamburg W2 D0 L3. Hoffenheim have won 27.8% (5W 3D 10L) of 18 games under the condition "After 15+ days' rest", below their 37.4% over the same window. Hamburg have won 31.4% (11W 9D 15L) of 35 games under the condition "Saturday 15:30 kick-off", above their 25.0% over the same window.
Key numbers
| Metric / unit | Hoffenheim | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|
| Positionpoints | 14th · 3 | 16th · 3 |
| W–D–L4 games | 1–0–3 | 1–0–3 |
| Goals for / againstper game | 1.75 / 2.50 | 0.50 / 3.25 |
| xG / xGAper game | 1.94 / 2.04 | 0.73 / 2.24 |
| Possession% | 57 | 45 |
| Shots / on targetper game | 19 / 5 | 9.5 / 3.8 |
| 2025-26 win rateW–D–L · promoted sides show second-tier record | 52.9% 18–7–9 | 26.5% 9–11–14 |
| Head-to-headW–D–L · since 2017-18 | 3–0–1 | 1–0–3 |
xG = expected goals · xGA = expected goals against · conceded minus xGA: Hoffenheim +0.46, Hamburg +1.01 (per game)
- ManagersC. Ilzer — league 62 games · 24W 15D 23L · win rate 38.7% · M. Polzin — league 38 games · 10W 11D 17L · win rate 26.3% · manager duel 2W 0D 0L (Hoffenheim perspective)
- Last matchHoffenheim 20 days ago BL away Paderborn 1–3 · Hamburg 21 days ago BL home Köln 2–1
Last five games
Hoffenheim
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | away | 1–3L | — |
| OFIUEL | away | 0–2L | — |
| Stuttgart | home | 2–1W | 2.76 |
| Dortmund | home | 2–3L | 1.17 |
| Köln | away | 2–3L | 1.88 |
Hamburger SV
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Köln | home | 2–1W | — |
| Leipzig | away | 0–5L | 1.10 |
| Mainz | home | 0–5L | 0.19 |
| Dortmund | away | 0–2L | 0.91 |
| VerlPokal | away | 3–0W | — |
all competitions · no xG for cup and European games
Head-to-head
- Hamburg1–2Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim4–1Hamburg
- Hoffenheim2–0Hamburg
- Hamburg3–0Hoffenheim
Full head-to-head record and fixture profile →
PreZero Arena H2H 2 games Hoffenheim 2W 0D 0L · since 2017-18 · green home win / red away win
Conditional data
Conditional records that the table, form and head-to-head do not show. Sample of 10 games or more.
- 27.8%After 15+ days' rest Hoffenheim win rate18 games · 5W 3D 10L · usual 37.4%
- 31.4%Saturday 15:30 kick-off Hamburg win rate35 games · 11W 9D 15L · usual 25.0%
- 40.0%Temperature 20°C or more Hamburg win rate10 games · 4W 1D 5L · usual 25.0%
- 31.0%Forecast temperature band Hamburg win rate29 games · 9W 5D 15L · usual 25.0%
- 24.5%A. Kramarić not scoring: Hoffenheim win rate94 games · 23W 21D 50L · scored in 38 games: 57.9% (22W 10D 6L) · since 2022-23
The other side. win rate after conceding first: Hoffenheim 13.2%, Hamburg 18.2%.
A. Timing and context win rate · sample · gap vs usual in percentage points
| Condition | Hoffenheim | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|
| After a match Hoffenheim 20 days · Hamburg 21 days earlierwin rate · rest counts all competitions · 8–14 and 15+ days grouped | -9.6p18 games · 5W 3D 10L · usual 37.4% | sample too small4 games · 0W 0D 4L · usual 25.0% |
| Saturday 15:30 kick-offwin rate · since 2017-18 | +1.1p182 games · 70W 40D 72L · usual 37.4% | +6.4p35 games · 11W 9D 15L · usual 25.0% |
| After last resultHoffenheim L / Hamburg W · since 2022-23 | +3.3p60 games · 23W 13D 24L · usual 35.0% | sample too small9 games · 3W 4D 2L · usual 25.0% |
| Forecast: overcastWin rate · Hoffenheim home / Hamburg away | +10.9p60 games · 29W 12D 19L · usual 37.4% | -5.0p15 games · 3W 3D 9L · usual 25.0% |
| Temperature 20°C or morewin rate · forecast 14.8°C | +7.5p49 games · 22W 5D 22L · usual 37.4% | +15.0p10 games · 4W 1D 5L · usual 25.0% |
| Humidity 80% or morewin rate · forecast 64% | -3.3p91 games · 31W 29D 31L · usual 37.4% | -7.8p29 games · 5W 11D 13L · usual 25.0% |
| Rain or drizzleWin rate | +1.7p69 games · 27W 15D 27L · usual 37.4% | +0.0p12 games · 3W 2D 7L · usual 25.0% |
| October gamesWin rate | +4.5p31 games · 13W 7D 11L · usual 37.4% | sample too small6 games · 1W 0D 5L · usual 25.0% |
| Manager vs this opponentwin rate · all clubs | 100.0%sample too small2 games · 2W 0D 0L · usual 35.0% | 0.0%sample too small2 games · 0W 0D 2L · usual 25.0% |
B. Game management since 2022-23 · usual win rate Hoffenheim 35.0% (49W 31D 60L) / Hamburg 25.0% (10W 11D 19L)
| items | Hoffenheim | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|
| After scoring firstWin rate | 65.0%60 games · 39W 10D 11L | 42.9%14 games · 6W 4D 4L |
| After conceding firstWin rate | 13.2% -21.8p76 games · 10W 17D 49L · usual 35.0% | 18.2% -6.8p22 games · 4W 3D 15L · usual 25.0% |
| Leading at 75 minutesWin rate | 88.2%51 games · 45W 5D 1L | 81.8%11 games · 9W 1D 1L |
| Led but failed to win / won from behindgames | 23 / 11 | 8 / 4 |
| Goals by substitutes% of team goals | 11.6 26/225 | 16.3 7/43 |
| Games with 3+ yellow cardsWin rate | -1.9p62 games · 22W 10D 30L · usual 37.4% | -1.9p13 games · 3W 1D 9L · usual 25.0% |
| Penalties won / concededper game | 0.16 / 0.11 | 0.10 / 0.15 |
| Goals for / against from 76th minute% of all goals | 19.0 / 22.5 | 14.0 / 24.7 |
| Failed to score / clean sheets% | 17.9 / 12.9 | 35.0 / 15.0 |
C. Shots and defensive shape 2026-27 4 games this season, averages · last season shown as totals
| items | Hoffenheim | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|
| Shots inside / outside the boxper game | 11.8 / 7.2 | 5.2 / 4.2 |
| Shots blockedper game | 6.8 | 2 |
| Shots faced / on target / inside boxper game | 14.5 / 5 / 10.8 | 18.5 / 6.2 / 12.5 |
| Keeper saves / goals preventedper game · goals prevented | 2.8 / -0.04 | 3.2 / -0.56 |
| Corners won / concededper game | 6.8 / 5.5 | 3.8 / 5 |
| Offsides / fouls wonper game | 2 / 8 | 2 / 14.2 |
| Passes / accuracyper game / % | 502 / 79.7 | 364 / 81.3 |
| 2025-26 xG → goalsseason total | 55.8 → 65 +9.2 | 41.6 → 40 -1.6 |
| 2025-26 xGA → concededseason total | 50.8 → 52 +1.2 | 61.4 → 54 -7.4 |
Order is always home team (Hoffenheim) then away team (Hamburg) · usual = the team's overall league win rate over the same window · ±p = percentage-point gap · fewer than 10 games shown faded and marked sample too small · the small W D L figures are the raw record behind each win rate (draws do not count as wins)
D. Win rate by player involvement League games only (cups and European games excluded) · all games since the player's first appearance for the club (from 2017-18 at the earliest) · pick a player to see the team's win rate when they started, came off the bench, or did not play, plus their record against this opponent · did not play = unused sub or not in the squad · fewer than 10 games shown faded
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
vs Hamburg · when playing —
Games: · · ·
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
vs Hoffenheim · when playing —
Games: · · ·
05How the numbers are compiled
- Source
- API-Football (fixtures, line-ups, events, stats) · Open-Meteo (weather, forecast) · Wikimedia (crests)
- Sample
- Bundesliga 2017-18 to 2026-27 · some conditions since 2022-23 · minimum 10 games (faded and marked below that)
- Match scope
- Conditional stats use league games only · last five games, streaks and rest days use all competitions · win rate = wins ÷ games · usual = league win rate over the same window · home team first
- Updated
- 2026.09.29 10:24 UK
This article summarises historical match data. It does not predict, guarantee or recommend any outcome.