Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
Mainz 05 host Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga matchweek 5: Sat 10 Oct, 15:30 CEST (10 Oct 22:30 KST) at Mewa Arena. Referee not yet appointed at time of writing.
The last 10 league meetings: Mainz 2 wins, 2 draws, Leverkusen 6 wins; the most recent was Leverkusen 1–1 Mainz in 2026/02. Last five games in all competitions: Mainz W3 D1 L1, Leverkusen W3 D1 L1. Leverkusen have won 44.7% (21W 11D 15L) of 47 games under the condition "Temperature 20°C or more", below their 53.2% over the same window. Mainz have won 39.7% (31W 22D 25L) of 78 games under the condition "Saturday games", above their 32.1% over the same window.
Key numbers
| Metric / unit | Mainz | Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Positionpoints | 6th · 7 | 5th · 7 |
| W–D–L4 games | 2–1–1 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals for / againstper game | 2.50 / 1.50 | 2.50 / 1.25 |
| xG / xGAper game | 2.04 / 0.99 | 2.54 / 0.92 |
| Possession% | 51 | 61.2 |
| Shots / on targetper game | 18.2 / 6.2 | 22.5 / 6.2 |
| 2025-26 win rateW–D–L · promoted sides show second-tier record | 29.4% 10–10–14 | 50.0% 17–8–9 |
| Head-to-headW–D–L · since 2017-18 | 3–3–12 | 12–3–3 |
xG = expected goals · xGA = expected goals against · conceded minus xGA: Mainz +0.51, Leverkusen +0.33 (per game)
- ManagersU. Fischer — league 30 games · 12W 9D 9L · win rate 40.0% · Carles Martinez — league 4 games · 2W 1D 1L · win rate 50.0% · first league meeting between the two managers
- Last matchMainz 21 days ago BL away Gladbach 4–3 · Leverkusen 20 days ago BL home Leipzig 2–0
Last five games
Mainz 05
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gladbach | away | 4–3W | — |
| Frankfurt | home | 1–3L | 2.12 |
| Hamburg | away | 5–0W | 2.77 |
| Paderborn | home | 0–0D | 1.23 |
| KrieschowPokal | away | 9–0W | — |
Bayer Leverkusen
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leipzig | home | 2–0W | — |
| CeljeUEL | home | 2–0W | 1.93 |
| Augsburg | away | 2–2D | 2.64 |
| Union Berlin | home | 4–0W | 3.11 |
| Elversberg | away | 2–3L | 1.88 |
Leverkusen 10 straight games scoring · all competitions · no xG for cup and European games
Head-to-head
- Leverkusen1–1Mainz
- Mainz3–4Leverkusen
- Mainz2–2Leverkusen
- Leverkusen1–0Mainz
- Leverkusen2–1Mainz
- Mainz0–3Leverkusen
- Leverkusen2–3Mainz
- Mainz0–3Leverkusen
- Mainz3–2Leverkusen
- Leverkusen1–0Mainz
Full head-to-head record and fixture profile →
Mewa Arena H2H 9 games Mainz 2W 1D 6L · since 2017-18 · green home win / red away win
| H2H 18 games (since 2017-18) | Value |
|---|---|
| Goals per game | 3.00 |
| Games with 3+ goalsshare % | 55.6 |
| Both teams scoredshare % | 50.0 |
| Average time of first goalmin | 33.7 |
| Goalless at half-timeshare % | 33.3 |
| Goals from 76th minute54 goals, % | 18.5 |
| Yellow cards per game | 5.22 |
| Red cards / penalties18 games total | 5 / 6 |
Conditional data
Conditional records that the table, form and head-to-head do not show. Sample of 10 games or more.
- 44.7%Temperature 20°C or more Leverkusen win rate47 games · 21W 11D 15L · usual 53.2%
- 39.7%Saturday games Mainz win rate78 games · 31W 22D 25L · usual 32.1% · since 2022-23
- 35.8%Saturday 15:30 kick-off Mainz win rate173 games · 62W 38D 73L · usual 32.3%
- 49.6%Forecast temperature band Leverkusen win rate133 games · 66W 37D 30L · usual 53.2%
- 42.6%P. Schick not scoring: Leverkusen win rate61 games · 26W 19D 16L · scored in 36 games: 66.7% (24W 8D 4L) · since 2022-23
The other side. win rate after conceding first: Mainz 10.3%, Leverkusen 25.6% · P. Schick vs this opponent 9 games 5 goals.
A. Timing and context win rate · sample · gap vs usual in percentage points
| Condition | Mainz | Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| After a match Mainz 21 days · Leverkusen 20 days earlierwin rate · rest counts all competitions · 8–14 and 15+ days grouped | -10.6p23 games · 5W 8D 10L · usual 32.3% | +1.3p11 games · 6W 2D 3L · usual 53.2% |
| Saturday 15:30 kick-offwin rate · since 2017-18 | +3.5p173 games · 62W 38D 73L · usual 32.3% | -0.2p149 games · 79W 38D 32L · usual 53.2% |
| After last resultMainz W / Leverkusen W · since 2022-23 | +6.5p44 games · 17W 10D 17L · usual 32.1% | +6.7p80 games · 51W 16D 13L · usual 57.1% |
| Forecast: drizzleWin rate · Mainz home / Leverkusen away | +4.1p22 games · 8W 4D 10L · usual 32.3% | +3.0p32 games · 18W 7D 7L · usual 53.2% |
| Temperature 20°C or morewin rate · forecast 15.2°C | +2.4p49 games · 17W 10D 22L · usual 32.3% | -8.5p47 games · 21W 11D 15L · usual 53.2% |
| Humidity 80% or morewin rate · forecast 63% | +1.0p84 games · 28W 21D 35L · usual 32.3% | +6.1p86 games · 51W 16D 19L · usual 53.2% |
| Rain or drizzleWin rate | -2.3p70 games · 21W 16D 33L · usual 32.3% | +5.6p68 games · 40W 16D 12L · usual 53.2% |
| October gamesWin rate | -6.5p31 games · 8W 6D 17L · usual 32.3% | -4.9p29 games · 14W 10D 5L · usual 53.2% |
| Manager vs this opponentwin rate · all clubs | 10.0% -22.1p10 games · 1W 5D 4L · usual 32.1% | — |
B. Game management since 2022-23 · usual win rate Mainz 32.1% (45W 45D 50L) / Leverkusen 57.1% (80W 35D 25L)
| items | Mainz | Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| After scoring firstWin rate | 59.4%64 games · 38W 19D 7L | 76.7%90 games · 69W 15D 6L |
| After conceding firstWin rate | 10.3% -21.8p68 games · 7W 18D 43L · usual 32.1% | 25.6% -31.5p43 games · 11W 13D 19L · usual 57.1% |
| Leading at 75 minutesWin rate | 73.1%52 games · 38W 12D 2L | 90.2%82 games · 74W 8D 0L |
| Led but failed to win / won from behindgames | 29 / 7 | 23 / 11 |
| Goals by substitutes% of team goals | 11.6 23/199 | 12.7 37/291 |
| Games with 3+ yellow cardsWin rate | -1.2p61 games · 19W 20D 22L · usual 32.3% | -21.4p44 games · 14W 20D 10L · usual 53.2% |
| Penalties won / concededper game | 0.13 / 0.11 | 0.19 / 0.13 |
| Goals for / against from 76th minute% of all goals | 20.8 / 26.0 | 19.6 / 22.0 |
| Failed to score / clean sheets% | 24.3 / 21.4 | 13.6 / 31.4 |
C. Shots and defensive shape 2026-27 4 games this season, averages · last season shown as totals
| items | Mainz | Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Shots inside / outside the boxper game | 13.5 / 4.8 | 16 / 6.5 |
| Shots blockedper game | 4.2 | 5.8 |
| Shots faced / on target / inside boxper game | 12.5 / 3.2 / 8.2 | 9 / 3.5 / 5.5 |
| Keeper saves / goals preventedper game · goals prevented | 1.8 / 0.48 | 2.2 / -0.67 |
| Corners won / concededper game | 6 / 4.2 | 9.2 / 3.2 |
| Offsides / fouls wonper game | 1.2 / 11.2 | 1.5 / 11 |
| Passes / accuracyper game / % | 443 / 80.7 | 560 / 88.7 |
| 2025-26 xG → goalsseason total | 54.8 → 44 -10.8 | 65.7 → 68 +2.3 |
| 2025-26 xGA → concededseason total | 56.9 → 53 -3.9 | 46.2 → 47 +0.8 |
Order is always home team (Mainz) then away team (Leverkusen) · usual = the team's overall league win rate over the same window · ±p = percentage-point gap · fewer than 10 games shown faded and marked sample too small · the small W D L figures are the raw record behind each win rate (draws do not count as wins)
D. Win rate by player involvement League games only (cups and European games excluded) · all games since the player's first appearance for the club (from 2017-18 at the earliest) · pick a player to see the team's win rate when they started, came off the bench, or did not play, plus their record against this opponent · did not play = unused sub or not in the squad · fewer than 10 games shown faded
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
vs Leverkusen · when playing —
Games: · · ·
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
vs Mainz · when playing —
Games: · · ·
05How the numbers are compiled
- Source
- API-Football (fixtures, line-ups, events, stats) · Open-Meteo (weather, forecast) · Wikimedia (crests)
- Sample
- Bundesliga 2017-18 to 2026-27 · some conditions since 2022-23 · minimum 10 games (faded and marked below that)
- Match scope
- Conditional stats use league games only · last five games, streaks and rest days use all competitions · win rate = wins ÷ games · usual = league win rate over the same window · home team first
- Updated
- 2026.09.29 10:24 UK
This article summarises historical match data. It does not predict, guarantee or recommend any outcome.