SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
SC Paderborn 07 host VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga matchweek 5: Sat 10 Oct, 15:30 CEST (10 Oct 22:30 KST) at Home Deluxe Arena. Referee not yet appointed at time of writing.
Paderborn and Stuttgart have not met in the league since 2017-18. Last five games in all competitions: Paderborn W2 D1 L2, Stuttgart W2 D0 L3. Stuttgart have won 14.8% (4W 7D 16L) of 27 games under the condition "Forecast: drizzle", below their 37.9% over the same window. Stuttgart have won 21.7% (13W 19D 28L) of 60 games under the condition "Forecast weather type", below their 37.9% over the same window.
Key numbers
| Metric / unit | Paderborn | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Positionpoints | 12th · 4 | 15th · 3 |
| W–D–L4 games | 1–1–2 | 1–0–3 |
| Goals for / againstper game | 0.75 / 1.25 | 1.50 / 2.25 |
| xG / xGAper game | 0.66 / 1.41 | 2.14 / 3.23 |
| Possession% | 46.8 | 53 |
| Shots / on targetper game | 11.8 / 2 | 15.2 / 5.5 |
| 2025-26 win rateW–D–L · promoted sides show second-tier record | 50.0% 1–1–0 | 52.9% 18–8–8 |
| Head-to-headW–D–L · since 2017-18 | — | — |
xG = expected goals · xGA = expected goals against · conceded minus xGA: Paderborn -0.16, Stuttgart -0.98 (per game)
- ManagersRalf Kettemann — league 6 games · 2W 2D 2L · win rate 33.3% · S. Hoeneb — league 116 games · 61W 24D 31L · win rate 52.6% · first league meeting between the two managers
- Last matchPaderborn 20 days ago BL home Hoffenheim 3–1 · Stuttgart 21 days ago BL home Dortmund 0–1
Last five games
SC Paderborn 07
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | home | 3–1W | — |
| Dortmund | away | 0–3L | 0.49 |
| Freiburg | home | 0–1L | 0.77 |
| Mainz | away | 0–0D | 0.73 |
| Phönix LübeckPokal | away | 4–2W | — |
VfB Stuttgart
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund | home | 0–1L | — |
| Hoffenheim | away | 1–2L | 2.16 |
| VikingUCL | home | 3–1W | — |
| Köln | home | 4–1W | 3.47 |
| Bayern | away | 1–5L | 0.79 |
all competitions · no xG for cup and European games
Head-to-head
No league meetings since 2017-18.
Conditional data
Conditional records that the table, form and head-to-head do not show. Sample of 10 games or more.
- 14.8%Forecast: drizzle Stuttgart away win rate27 games · 4W 7D 16L · usual 37.9%
- 21.7%Forecast weather type Stuttgart win rate60 games · 13W 19D 28L · usual 37.9%
- 21.7%Rain or drizzle Stuttgart win rate60 games · 13W 19D 28L · usual 37.9%
- 25.0%Humidity 80% or more Stuttgart win rate64 games · 16W 16D 32L · usual 37.9%
- 37.7%D. Undav not scoring: Stuttgart win rate53 games · 20W 11D 22L · scored in 37 games: 73.0% (27W 7D 3L) · since 2022-23
The other side. win rate after conceding first: Paderborn 33.3%, Stuttgart 21.5%.
A. Timing and context win rate · sample · gap vs usual in percentage points
| Condition | Paderborn | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| After a match Paderborn 20 days · Stuttgart 21 days earlierwin rate · rest counts all competitions · 8–14 and 15+ days grouped | sample too small4 games · 0W 1D 3L · usual 15.0% | -9.3p14 games · 4W 6D 4L · usual 37.9% |
| Saturday 15:30 kick-offwin rate · since 2017-18 | -6.3p23 games · 2W 7D 14L · usual 15.0% | -1.9p136 games · 49W 35D 52L · usual 37.9% |
| After last resultPaderborn W / Stuttgart L · since 2022-23 | sample too small1 games · 0W 1D 0L · usual 33.3% | +4.2p44 games · 22W 10D 12L · usual 45.8% |
| Forecast: drizzleWin rate · Paderborn home / Stuttgart away | sample too small5 games · 1W 0D 4L · usual 15.0% | -23.1p27 games · 4W 7D 16L · usual 37.9% |
| Temperature 20°C or morewin rate · forecast 13.7°C | -6.7p12 games · 1W 2D 9L · usual 15.0% | +10.9p43 games · 21W 11D 11L · usual 37.9% |
| Humidity 80% or morewin rate · forecast 68% | +10.0p12 games · 3W 2D 7L · usual 15.0% | -12.9p64 games · 16W 16D 32L · usual 37.9% |
| Rain or drizzleWin rate | -5.0p10 games · 1W 1D 8L · usual 15.0% | -16.2p60 games · 13W 19D 28L · usual 37.9% |
| October gamesWin rate | sample too small3 games · 1W 0D 2L · usual 15.0% | +5.0p28 games · 12W 6D 10L · usual 37.9% |
B. Game management since 2022-23 · usual win rate Paderborn 33.3% (2W 2D 2L) / Stuttgart 45.8% (65W 32D 45L)
| items | Paderborn | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| After scoring firstWin rate | 100.0%1 games · 1W 0D 0L | 68.9%74 games · 51W 13D 10L |
| After conceding firstWin rate | 33.3%sample too small3 games · 1W 0D 2L · usual 33.3% | 21.5% -24.3p65 games · 14W 16D 35L · usual 45.8% |
| Leading at 75 minutesWin rate | 100.0%1 games · 1W 0D 0L | 88.1%59 games · 52W 4D 3L |
| Led but failed to win / won from behindgames | 0 / 1 | 27 / 14 |
| Goals by substitutes% of team goals | 20.0 1/5 | 21.4 57/266 |
| Games with 3+ yellow cardsWin rate | sample too small3 games · 1W 1D 1L · usual 15.0% | -5.3p43 games · 14W 11D 18L · usual 37.9% |
| Penalties won / concededper game | 0.00 / 0.00 | 0.15 / 0.15 |
| Goals for / against from 76th minute% of all goals | 20.0 / 33.3 | 26.3 / 26.9 |
| Failed to score / clean sheets% | 66.7 / 33.3 | 14.8 / 23.2 |
C. Shots and defensive shape 2026-27 4 games this season, averages · last season shown as totals
| items | Paderborn | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Shots inside / outside the boxper game | 6 / 5.8 | 10.8 / 4.5 |
| Shots blockedper game | 4 | 3.8 |
| Shots faced / on target / inside boxper game | 18.5 / 4.8 / 12.2 | 18 / 6 / 12.5 |
| Keeper saves / goals preventedper game · goals prevented | 3.5 / 0.42 | 3.8 / -0.34 |
| Corners won / concededper game | 4 / 6.8 | 6.5 / 6 |
| Offsides / fouls wonper game | 1.2 / 10.8 | 1.8 / 11.2 |
| Passes / accuracyper game / % | 446 / 83 | 488 / 79.7 |
Order is always home team (Paderborn) then away team (Stuttgart) · usual = the team's overall league win rate over the same window · ±p = percentage-point gap · fewer than 10 games shown faded and marked sample too small · the small W D L figures are the raw record behind each win rate (draws do not count as wins)
D. Win rate by player involvement League games only (cups and European games excluded) · all games since the player's first appearance for the club (from 2017-18 at the earliest) · pick a player to see the team's win rate when they started, came off the bench, or did not play, plus their record against this opponent · did not play = unused sub or not in the squad · fewer than 10 games shown faded
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
vs Stuttgart · when playing —
Games: · · ·
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
vs Paderborn · when playing —
Games: · · ·
05How the numbers are compiled
- Source
- API-Football (fixtures, line-ups, events, stats) · Open-Meteo (weather, forecast) · Wikimedia (crests)
- Sample
- Bundesliga 2017-18 to 2026-27 · some conditions since 2022-23 · minimum 10 games (faded and marked below that)
- Match scope
- Conditional stats use league games only · last five games, streaks and rest days use all competitions · win rate = wins ÷ games · usual = league win rate over the same window · home team first
- Updated
- 2026.09.29 10:24 UK
This article summarises historical match data. It does not predict, guarantee or recommend any outcome.