PREMIER LEAGUE Matchweek 4
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Full time
Villa1–2Forest
GoalsVilla Alysson 74'Forest L. Delap 46' · Igor Jesus 88'
Kicked off 2026.09.12. The data below is as it stood before kick-off and has not been edited to match the result. See the full head-to-head record
Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest in Premier League matchweek 4: Sat 12 Sep, 15:00 BST (12 Sep 23:00 KST) at Villa Park. Referee not yet appointed at time of writing.
The last 9 league meetings: Villa 4 wins, 2 draws, Forest 3 wins; the most recent was Villa 1–2 Forest in 2026/09. Last five games in all competitions: Villa W2 D1 L2, Forest W0 D3 L2. Villa have won 31.8% of 22 games under the condition "Temperature 20°C or more", below their 42.2% over the same window. Forest have won 38.2% of 55 games under the condition "Humidity 80% or more", above their 31.4% over the same window. Absentees: Villa A. Onana, João Gomes, L. Goretzka; Forest N. Savona (as of 2026-09-14).
Last 9 meetings4 · 2 · 3Villa W · D · Forest WLast meeting Villa 1–2 Forest (2026.09)
H2H 9 games, average3.00 goals3+ goals 55.6% · red cards 0x · league average 2.84 goals
Win rate this season0.0% / 25.0%Villa / Forest4 games · last season 50.0% / 28.9%
Key numbers
| Metric / unit | Villa | Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Positionpoints | 19th · 1 | 12th · 5 |
| W–D–L4 games | 0–1–3 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals for / againstper game | 0.25 / 1.75 | 1.00 / 1.00 |
| xG / xGAper game | 0.85 / 1.79 | 1.29 / 1.09 |
| Possession% | 46.7 | 42.7 |
| Shots / on targetper game | 8.7 / 0.3 | 12 / 2.3 |
| 2025-26 win rateW–D–L · promoted sides show second-tier record | 50.0% 19–8–11 | 28.9% 11–11–16 |
| Head-to-headW–D–L · since 2017-18 | 4–2–3 | 3–2–4 |
xG = expected goals · xGA = expected goals against · conceded minus xGA: Villa -0.04, Forest -0.09 (per game)
- Villa outA. Onana(Knee Injury) · João Gomes(Red Card) · L. Goretzka(Knee Injury) · B. Madjo(Ankle Injury) / doubtful: J. Manzambi(Knee Injury) · as of 2026-09-14
- Forest outN. Savona(Knee Injury)
- ManagersUnai Emery — league 142 games win rate 51.4% · O. Glasner — league 3 games win rate 0.0% · manager duel 0W 2D 3L (Villa perspective)
- Last matchVilla 4 days ago UCL away Club Brugge KV 3–2 · Forest 7 days ago PL home Spurs 0–0
- Last season's top scorerVilla O. Watkins (last season 16 goals) has not featured this season
Last five games
Aston Villa
Scored 5Conceded 8Clean sheets 1
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KVUCL | away | 3–2W | 3.22 |
| Hull | away | 0–0D | 1.93 |
| Arsenal | home | 0–1L | 0.33 |
| Brighton | away | 0–4L | 0.29 |
| Man City | away | 2–1W | 1.77 |
Nottingham Forest
Scored 3Conceded 6Clean sheets 1
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs | home | 0–0D | 0.92 |
| Liverpool | away | 2–2D | 2.30 |
| LeedsEFL Cup | home | 0–2L | 1.18 |
| Leeds | home | 0–1L | 0.66 |
| Bournemouth | home | 1–1D | 1.73 |
Forest 8 without a win · all competitions · no xG for cup and European games
Head-to-head
- Villa1–2Forest
- Forest1–1Villa
- Villa3–1Forest
- Villa2–1Forest
- Forest2–1Villa
- Villa4–2Forest
- Forest2–0Villa
- Villa2–0Forest
- Forest1–1Villa
Full head-to-head record and fixture profile →
Villa Park H2H 5 games Villa 4W 0D 1L · since 2017-18 · green home win / red away win
| H2H 9 games (since 2017-18) | Value | League |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per game | 3.00 | 2.84 |
| Games with 3+ goalsshare % | 55.6 | — |
| Both teams scoredshare % | 77.8 | — |
| Average time of first goalmin | 27 | — |
| Goalless at half-timeshare % | 33.3 | — |
| Goals from 76th minute24 goals, % | 12.5 | — |
| Yellow cards per game | 3.33 | 3.61 |
| Red cards / penalties9 games total | 0 / 0 | — |
| Most frequent referee | Anthony Taylor 2x · Samuel Barrott 2x | — |
Conditional data
Beneath the surface
Conditional records that the table, form and head-to-head do not show. Sample of 10 games or more.
- 31.8%Temperature 20°C or more Villa win rate22 games · usual 42.2%
- 38.2%Humidity 80% or more Forest win rate55 games · usual 31.4%
- 41.8%Rain or drizzle Villa win rate67 games · usual 42.2%
- 47.6%J. McGinn not scoring: Villa win rate124 games · scored in 12 games: 91.7% · since 2022-23
The other side. win rate after conceding first: Villa 22.2%, Forest 9.0% · absentees per game Villa 5.2, Forest 1.5.
A. Timing and context win rate · sample · gap vs usual in percentage points
| Condition | Villa | Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Saturday 15:00 kick-offwin rate · since 2017-18 | +0.4p61 games · usual 42.2% | -5.9p51 games · usual 31.4% |
| Weekend afternoon kick-offWin rate · Villa home / Forest away | +12.3p66 games · usual 42.2% | -3.7p47 games · usual 31.4% |
| After last resultVilla L / Forest W · since 2022-23 | -1.9p47 games · usual 48.7% | -2.2p48 games · usual 31.4% |
| Temperature 20°C or morewin rate · forecast °C | -10.4p22 games · usual 42.2% | -12.6p16 games · usual 31.4% |
| Humidity 80% or morewin rate · forecast % | -1.0p114 games · usual 42.2% | +6.8p55 games · usual 31.4% |
| Rain or drizzleWin rate | -0.4p67 games · usual 42.2% | -7.2p33 games · usual 31.4% |
| September gamesWin rate | +7.8p22 games · usual 42.2% | -8.3p13 games · usual 31.4% |
| Villa Park awaywin rate · any opponent | — | —5 games · sample too small |
| Villa Park rain frequencyrain or drizzle · % of home games | 28.1 | — |
B. Game management since 2022-23 · usual win rate Villa 48.7% / Forest 31.4%
| items | Villa | Forest |
|---|---|---|
| After scoring firstWin rate | 78.9%76 games · 7 losses | 58.6%70 games · 11 losses |
| After conceding firstWin rate | 22.2% -26.5p72 games · usual 48.7% | 9.0% -22.4p78 games · usual 31.4% |
| Leading at 75 minutesWin rate | 93.7%63 games | 83.0%53 games |
| Led but failed to win / won from behindgames | 20 / 16 | 34 / 7 |
| Average time of first substitutionmin | 55.7 | 58.2 |
| Goals by substitutes% of team goals | 17.0 39/230 | 9.9 19/191 |
| Average time of first booking / games with nonemin / % | 45.6 / 14.7 | 44.5 / 10.9 |
| Games with 3+ yellow cardsWin rate | +9.5p58 games · usual 42.2% | -0.2p48 games · usual 31.4% |
| Penalties won / concededper game | 0.08 / 0.06 | 0.07 / 0.12 |
| Penalties scoredscored/taken | 10 / 13 | 11 / 11 |
| Goals for / against from 76th minute% of all goals | 22.8 / 21.6 | 19.5 / 25.1 |
| Failed to score / clean sheets% | 21.8 / 25.0 | 29.5 / 22.4 |
C. Shots and defensive shape 2026-27 3 games this season, averages · last season shown as totals
| items | Villa | Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Shots inside / outside the boxper game | 5 / 3.7 | 7.3 / 4.7 |
| Shots blockedper game | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| Shots faced / on target / inside boxper game | 13 / 4 / 8 | 11.7 / 2.3 / 7.3 |
| Keeper saves / goals preventedper game · goals prevented | 2.7 / -0.08 | 1.3 / 0.12 |
| Corners won / concededper game | 2.7 / 4 | 3.3 / 5 |
| Offsides / fouls wonper game | 1.3 / 9.3 | 1.7 / 13.7 |
| Passes / accuracyper game / % | 425 / 82.3 | 337 / 74 |
| 2025-26 xG → goalsseason total | 48.2 → 56 +7.8 | 46.0 → 48 +2.0 |
| 2025-26 xGA → concededseason total | 54.0 → 49 -5.0 | 57.0 → 51 -6.0 |
D. Player conditions since 2022-23 · both samples 10+ games
| Player · condition | When true | When not | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. McGinn (Villa) scoresteam win rate | 91.7%12 games | 47.6%124 games | +44.1p |
| L. Bogarde (Villa) startingteam win rate · conceded | 37.5% · 1.6216 games | 50.8% · 1.2561 games | -13.3p |
| R. Barkley (Villa) startingteam win rate · conceded | 30.8% · 1.5413 games | 50.7% · 1.35142 games | -19.9p |
| I. Maatsen (Villa) startingteam win rate · conceded | 56.7% · 1.3730 games | 42.9% · 1.3149 games | +13.8p |
| M. Cash (Villa) bookedown rating | 6.6128 games | 6.9780 games | -0.36 |
| J. McGinn (Villa) bookedown rating | 6.8429 games | 7.0694 games | -0.21 |
| C. Wood (Forest) scoresteam win rate | 53.3%30 games | 23.0%61 games | +30.3p |
| O. Aina (Forest) startingteam win rate · conceded | 39.5% · 1.3776 games | 22.0% · 1.5441 games | +17.5p |
| C. Wood (Forest) startingteam win rate · conceded | 38.0% · 1.4271 games | 24.6% · 1.5465 games | +13.4p |
| Igor Jesus (Forest) startingteam win rate · conceded | 30.0% · 1.2730 games | 18.2% · 1.4511 games | +11.8p |
| O. Aina (Forest) bookedown rating | 6.6713 games | 6.9262 games | -0.25 |
| Murillo (Forest) bookedown rating | 6.8516 games | 7.0778 games | -0.22 |
E. Individual numbers
| items | Villa | Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Shot conversion · minutes per goalleague since 2022-23 | J. McGinn 12.5% · 799minE. Buendía 14.5% · 416min / M. Cash 9.8% · 1552min | C. Wood 31.1% · 162minM. Gibbs-White 16.4% · 374min / Igor Jesus 14.3% · 422min |
| Record vs this opponentsince 2017-18 · apps G A rating | J. McGinn 8 games 2G 2A 7.36M. Cash 6 games 0G 1A | M. Gibbs-White 8 games 2G 2A 7.15N. Williams 8 games 1G 1A |
| Key passesseason total | R. Barkley 6 · V. Lindelöf 2 · E. Buendía 2 | J. McAtee 9 · O. Aina 4 · N. Williams 3 |
| Fouls won / committedseason total | J. McGinn 8 · M. Cash 5 · E. Buendía 4 / B. Kamara 6 · J. McGinn 5 · M. Cash 5 | N. Williams 6 · J. McAtee 6 · Cunha 6 / Igor Jesus 6 · N. Williams 5 · N. Milenković 5 |
| Duel win %20+ duels · % | M. Cash 57 · R. Barkley 45 · B. Kamara 44 | J. McAtee 63 · Cunha 58 · N. Williams 56 |
| Tackles+interceptions / dribbles won–triedseason total | I. Maatsen 11 · J. McGinn 7 · M. Cash 7 / R. Barkley 4–4 · N. Jackson 4–6 · G. Hemmings 3–5 | N. Williams 12 · X. Schlager 11 · O. Aina 9 / M. Gibbs-White 4–8 · O. Aina 4–7 · D. Ndoye 3–8 |
| Home/away ratingsince 2022-23 · 10+ games each | J. McGinn 7.2/6.82 · M. Cash 7.0/6.75 · T. Mings 6.84/6.98 | I. Sangaré 7.1/6.7 · O. Aina 7.02/6.74 · Igor Jesus 6.54/6.71 |
Order is always home team (Villa) then away team (Forest) · usual = the team's overall league win rate over the same window · ±p = percentage-point gap · fewer than 10 games shown as — · ratings are API-Football official ratings
F. Win rate by player involvement League games only (cups and European games excluded) · all games since the player's first appearance for the club (from 2017-18 at the earliest) · pick a player to see the team's win rate when they started, came off the bench, or did not play, plus their record against this opponent · did not play = unused sub or not in the squad · fewer than 10 games shown faded
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
Started—
Off the bench—
Did not play—
vs Forest · when playing —
Games: · · ·
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
Started—
Off the bench—
Did not play—
vs Villa · when playing —
Games: · · ·
05How the numbers are compiled
- Source
- API-Football (fixtures, line-ups, events, stats, absentees) · Open-Meteo (weather, forecast) · Wikimedia (crests)
- Sample
- Premier League 2017-18 to 2026-27 · some conditions since 2022-23 · minimum 10 games (— below that)
- Match scope
- Conditional stats use league games only · last five games, streaks and rest days use all competitions · win rate = wins ÷ games · usual = league win rate over the same window · home team first
- Updated
- 2026.09.14 13:07 UK
This article summarises historical match data. It does not predict, guarantee or recommend any outcome.