Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Real Madrid host Villarreal in La Liga matchweek 8: Sun 11 Oct, 17:00 CEST (12 Oct 00:00 KST). Referee not yet appointed at time of writing.
The last 10 league meetings: Real Madrid 5 wins, 3 draws, Villarreal 2 wins; the most recent was Villarreal 0–2 Real Madrid in 2026/01. Last five games in all competitions: Real Madrid W3 D0 L2, Villarreal W2 D0 L3. Real Madrid have won 63.3% (38W 14D 8L) of 60 games under the condition "Sunday games", below their 69.8% over the same window. Villarreal have won 45.8% (60W 36D 35L) of 131 games under the condition "Forecast temperature band", above their 44.1% over the same window.
Key numbers
| Metric / unit | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Positionpoints | 4th · 15 | 9th · 8 |
| W–D–L7 games | 5–0–2 | 2–2–3 |
| Goals for / againstper game | 2.57 / 1.14 | 1.86 / 1.71 |
| xG / xGAper game | 3.03 / 0.88 | 1.74 / 1.55 |
| Possession% | 52.4 | 61.7 |
| Shots / on targetper game | 18.9 / 7.6 | 16 / 6.6 |
| 2025-26 win rateW–D–L · promoted sides show second-tier record | 71.1% 27–5–6 | 57.9% 22–6–10 |
| Head-to-headW–D–L · since 2017-18 | 8–7–3 | 3–7–8 |
xG = expected goals · xGA = expected goals against · conceded minus xGA: Real Madrid +0.26, Villarreal +0.16 (per game)
- ManagersJosé Mourinho — league 7 games · 5W 0D 2L · win rate 71.4% · Iñigo Pérez — league 7 games · 2W 2D 3L · win rate 28.6% · first league meeting between the two managers
- Last matchReal Madrid 21 days ago LaLiga away Atlético 1–2 · Villarreal 21 days ago LaLiga home Levante 3–1
Last five games
Real Madrid
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético | away | 1–2L | — |
| Elche | away | 3–2W | 3.61 |
| Rayo | home | 4–1W | 2.62 |
| InterUCL | home | 2–1W | 2.91 |
| Betis | away | 0–1L | 3.46 |
Villarreal
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | home | 3–1W | — |
| Málaga | away | 3–1W | — |
| Betis | home | 1–2L | 1.89 |
| DortmundUCL | away | 2–3L | 1.34 |
| Deportivo | home | 2–3L | 1.14 |
Real Madrid league home 9 unbeaten · all competitions · no xG for cup and European games
Head-to-head
- Villarreal0–2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid3–1Villarreal
- Villarreal1–2Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2–0Villarreal
- Villarreal4–4Real Madrid
- Real Madrid4–1Villarreal
- Real Madrid2–3Villarreal
- Villarreal2–1Real Madrid
- Villarreal0–0Real Madrid
- Real Madrid0–0Villarreal
Full head-to-head record and fixture profile →
this ground H2H 9 games Real Madrid 6W 1D 2L · since 2017-18 · green home win / red away win
| H2H 18 games (since 2017-18) | Value |
|---|---|
| Goals per game | 3.22 |
| Games with 3+ goalsshare % | 66.7 |
| Both teams scoredshare % | 72.2 |
| Average time of first goalmin | 24 |
| Goalless at half-timeshare % | 33.3 |
| Goals from 76th minute58 goals, % | 22.4 |
| Yellow cards per game | 3.89 |
| Red cards / penalties18 games total | 2 / 6 |
Conditional data
Conditional records that the table, form and head-to-head do not show. Sample of 10 games or more.
- 63.3%Sunday games Real Madrid win rate60 games · 38W 14D 8L · usual 69.8% · since 2022-23
- 45.8%Forecast temperature band Villarreal win rate131 games · 60W 36D 35L · usual 44.1%
- 45.8%Temperature 20°C or more Villarreal win rate131 games · 60W 36D 35L · usual 44.1%
- 63.6%October games Real Madrid win rate33 games · 21W 4D 8L · usual 66.2%
- 40.7%K. Mbappé not scoring: Real Madrid win rate27 games · 11W 6D 10L · scored in 45 games: 88.9% (40W 3D 2L) · since 2022-23
The other side. win rate after conceding first: Real Madrid 39.1%, Villarreal 22.1% · K. Mbappé vs this opponent 4 games 5 goals.
A. Timing and context win rate · sample · gap vs usual in percentage points
| Condition | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| After a match 21 days earlierwin rate · rest counts all competitions · 8–14 and 15+ days grouped | +18.0p19 games · 16W 3D 0L · usual 66.2% | +1.7p24 games · 11W 8D 5L · usual 44.1% |
| Sunday 17:00 kick-offwin rate · since 2017-18 | sample too small2 games · 2W 0D 0L · usual 66.2% | sample too small6 games · 1W 4D 1L · usual 44.1% |
| After last resultReal Madrid L / Villarreal W · since 2022-23 | +16.6p22 games · 19W 2D 1L · usual 69.8% | -0.3p77 games · 37W 19D 21L · usual 48.4% |
| Forecast: mostly clearWin rate · Real Madrid home / Villarreal away | +4.2p27 games · 19W 5D 3L · usual 66.2% | -7.7p22 games · 8W 7D 7L · usual 44.1% |
| Temperature 20°C or morewin rate · forecast 20.5°C | +5.2p112 games · 80W 21D 11L · usual 66.2% | +1.7p131 games · 60W 36D 35L · usual 44.1% |
| Humidity 80% or morewin rate · forecast 56% | -3.1p84 games · 53W 18D 13L · usual 66.2% | -7.5p71 games · 26W 20D 25L · usual 44.1% |
| Rain or drizzleWin rate | +3.4p46 games · 32W 6D 8L · usual 66.2% | +2.1p39 games · 18W 7D 14L · usual 44.1% |
| October gamesWin rate | -2.6p33 games · 21W 4D 8L · usual 66.2% | -8.8p34 games · 12W 9D 13L · usual 44.1% |
| Manager vs this opponentwin rate · all clubs | — | 0.0%sample too small5 games · 0W 3D 2L · usual 48.4% |
B. Game management since 2022-23 · usual win rate Real Madrid 69.8% (111W 25D 23L) / Villarreal 48.4% (77W 36D 46L)
| items | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| After scoring firstWin rate | 86.1%108 games · 93W 11D 4L | 72.1%86 games · 62W 16D 8L |
| After conceding firstWin rate | 39.1% -30.7p46 games · 18W 9D 19L · usual 69.8% | 22.1% -26.3p68 games · 15W 15D 38L · usual 48.4% |
| Leading at 75 minutesWin rate | 95.7%93 games · 89W 4D 0L | 90.2%61 games · 55W 6D 0L |
| Led but failed to win / won from behindgames | 18 / 19 | 26 / 17 |
| Goals by substitutes% of team goals | 8.8 29/329 | 17.2 47/273 |
| Games with 3+ yellow cardsWin rate | -15.0p41 games · 21W 6D 14L · usual 66.2% | +7.9p75 games · 39W 17D 19L · usual 44.1% |
| Penalties won / concededper game | 0.26 / 0.08 | 0.18 / 0.16 |
| Goals for / against from 76th minute% of all goals | 23.3 / 23.1 | 22.9 / 15.9 |
| Failed to score / clean sheets% | 8.8 / 40.3 | 16.4 / 20.8 |
C. Shots and defensive shape 2026-27 7 games this season, averages · last season shown as totals
| items | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Shots inside / outside the boxper game | 13.1 / 5.7 | 11 / 5 |
| Shots blockedper game | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| Shots faced / on target / inside boxper game | 12.7 / 4.4 / 7 | 12.9 / 3.7 / 7.9 |
| Keeper saves / goals preventedper game · goals prevented | 3 / -0.52 | 2.3 / -0.08 |
| Corners won / concededper game | 6.9 / 4.1 | 7.3 / 3.7 |
| Offsides / fouls wonper game | 1.9 / 14.3 | 2.7 / 12.9 |
| Passes / accuracyper game / % | 526 / 91.2 | 594 / 89 |
| 2025-26 xG → goalsseason total | 77.8 → 77 -0.8 | 58.2 → 72 +13.8 |
| 2025-26 xGA → concededseason total | 41.2 → 35 -6.2 | 46.4 → 46 -0.4 |
Order is always home team (Real Madrid) then away team (Villarreal) · usual = the team's overall league win rate over the same window · ±p = percentage-point gap · fewer than 10 games shown faded and marked sample too small · the small W D L figures are the raw record behind each win rate (draws do not count as wins)
D. Win rate by player involvement League games only (cups and European games excluded) · all games since the player's first appearance for the club (from 2017-18 at the earliest) · pick a player to see the team's win rate when they started, came off the bench, or did not play, plus their record against this opponent · did not play = unused sub or not in the squad · fewer than 10 games shown faded
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
vs Villarreal · when playing —
Games: · · ·
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
vs Real Madrid · when playing —
Games: · · ·
05How the numbers are compiled
- Source
- API-Football (fixtures, line-ups, events, stats) · Open-Meteo (weather, forecast) · Wikimedia (crests)
- Sample
- La Liga 2017-18 to 2026-27 · some conditions since 2022-23 · minimum 10 games (faded and marked below that)
- Match scope
- Conditional stats use league games only · last five games, streaks and rest days use all competitions · win rate = wins ÷ games · usual = league win rate over the same window · home team first
- Updated
- 2026.09.29 10:24 UK
This article summarises historical match data. It does not predict, guarantee or recommend any outcome.