Monaco vs Toulouse
Monaco host Toulouse in Ligue 1 matchweek 6: Sat 10 Oct, 20:45 CEST (11 Oct 03:45 KST) at Stade Louis II. Referee not yet appointed at time of writing.
The last 10 league meetings: Monaco 6 wins, 2 draws, Toulouse 2 wins; the most recent was Toulouse 2–2 Monaco in 2026/04. Last five games in all competitions: Monaco W4 D1 L0, Toulouse W1 D2 L2. Toulouse have won 40.0% (20W 16D 14L) of 50 games under the condition "Forecast temperature band", above their 27.5% over the same window. Toulouse have won 40.0% (20W 16D 14L) of 50 games under the condition "Temperature 20°C or more", above their 27.5% over the same window.
Key numbers
| Metric / unit | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Positionpoints | 1st · 13 | 13th · 5 |
| W–D–L5 games | 4–1–0 | 1–2–2 |
| Goals for / againstper game | 1.60 / 0.60 | 1.40 / 1.80 |
| xG / xGAper game | 1.17 / 1.33 | 2.25 / 1.47 |
| Possession% | 45.2 | 52.6 |
| Shots / on targetper game | 10.2 / 4.6 | 14.8 / 4.6 |
| 2025-26 win rateW–D–L · promoted sides show second-tier record | 47.1% 16–6–12 | 35.3% 12–9–13 |
| Head-to-headW–D–L · since 2017-18 | 7–4–2 | 2–4–7 |
xG = expected goals · xGA = expected goals against · conceded minus xGA: Monaco -0.73, Toulouse +0.33 (per game)
- ManagersFilipe Luís — league 5 games · 4W 1D 0L · win rate 80.0% · P. Montanier — league 38 games · 13W 9D 16L · win rate 34.2% · first league meeting between the two managers
- Last matchMonaco 22 days ago L1 home Lens 2–1 · Toulouse 21 days ago L1 home Le Havre 3–2
Last five games
Monaco
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | home | 2–1W | — |
| Strasbourg | away | 1–1D | 1.05 |
| PSG | away | 2–1W | 0.51 |
| Marseille | home | 2–0W | 1.72 |
| Gornik ZabrzeUECL | home | 4–1W | — |
Toulouse
| Opponent | Venue | Result | xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | home | 3–2W | — |
| Lorient | away | 2–2D | 1.63 |
| Lille | home | 0–1L | 3.46 |
| Brest | away | 2–2D | 1.14 |
| Lyon | home | 0–2L | 2.77 |
Monaco 8 straight games scoring · Monaco 7 unbeaten · all competitions · no xG for cup and European games
Head-to-head
- Toulouse2–2Monaco
- Monaco1–0Toulouse
- Toulouse1–1Monaco
- Monaco2–0Toulouse
- Monaco1–2Toulouse
- Toulouse1–2Monaco
- Monaco1–2Toulouse
- Toulouse0–2Monaco
- Toulouse1–2Monaco
- Monaco2–1Toulouse
Full head-to-head record and fixture profile →
Stade Louis II H2H 6 games Monaco 4W 0D 2L · since 2017-18 · green home win / red away win
| H2H 13 games (since 2017-18) | Value |
|---|---|
| Goals per game | 3.00 |
| Games with 3+ goalsshare % | 61.5 |
| Both teams scoredshare % | 76.9 |
| Average time of first goalmin | 25.2 |
| Goalless at half-timeshare % | 30.8 |
| Goals from 76th minute39 goals, % | 23.1 |
| Yellow cards per game | 4.0 |
| Red cards / penalties13 games total | 1 / 4 |
Conditional data
Conditional records that the table, form and head-to-head do not show. Sample of 10 games or more.
- 40.0%Forecast temperature band Toulouse win rate50 games · 20W 16D 14L · usual 27.5%
- 40.0%Temperature 20°C or more Toulouse win rate50 games · 20W 16D 14L · usual 27.5%
- 41.4%Rain or drizzle Monaco win rate58 games · 24W 11D 23L · usual 50.5%
- 36.0%October games Toulouse win rate25 games · 9W 8D 8L · usual 27.5%
- 48.0%F. Balogun not scoring: Monaco win rate50 games · 24W 10D 16L · scored in 23 games: 73.9% (17W 3D 3L) · since 2022-23
The other side. win rate after conceding first: Monaco 25.0%, Toulouse 15.8%.
A. Timing and context win rate · sample · gap vs usual in percentage points
| Condition | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| After a match Monaco 22 days · Toulouse 21 days earlierwin rate · rest counts all competitions · 8–14 and 15+ days grouped | +3.3p13 games · 7W 3D 3L · usual 50.5% | +1.1p21 games · 6W 5D 10L · usual 27.5% |
| Saturday 20:45 kick-offwin rate · since 2017-18 | +6.6p35 games · 20W 6D 9L · usual 50.5% | +3.3p26 games · 8W 8D 10L · usual 27.5% |
| After last resultMonaco W / Toulouse W · since 2022-23 | -1.8p76 games · 39W 18D 19L · usual 53.1% | +0.2p48 games · 16W 13D 19L · usual 33.1% |
| Forecast: mostly clearWin rate · Monaco home / Toulouse away | +4.7p29 games · 16W 7D 6L · usual 50.5% | -4.0p17 games · 4W 5D 8L · usual 27.5% |
| Temperature 20°C or morewin rate · forecast 21.0°C | +5.2p70 games · 39W 18D 13L · usual 50.5% | +12.5p50 games · 20W 16D 14L · usual 27.5% |
| Humidity 80% or morewin rate · forecast 87% | -2.9p124 games · 59W 25D 40L · usual 50.5% | -0.8p90 games · 24W 19D 47L · usual 27.5% |
| Rain or drizzleWin rate | -9.1p58 games · 24W 11D 23L · usual 50.5% | -3.7p42 games · 10W 10D 22L · usual 27.5% |
| October gamesWin rate | -5.3p31 games · 14W 6D 11L · usual 50.5% | +8.5p25 games · 9W 8D 8L · usual 27.5% |
| Manager vs this opponentwin rate · all clubs | — | 50.0%sample too small2 games · 1W 0D 1L · usual 33.1% |
B. Game management since 2022-23 · usual win rate Monaco 53.1% (77W 29D 39L) / Toulouse 33.1% (48W 39D 58L)
| items | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| After scoring firstWin rate | 77.8%81 games · 63W 11D 7L | 63.2%57 games · 36W 8D 13L |
| After conceding firstWin rate | 25.0% -28.1p56 games · 14W 10D 32L · usual 53.1% | 15.8% -17.3p76 games · 12W 19D 45L · usual 33.1% |
| Leading at 75 minutesWin rate | 90.7%75 games · 68W 6D 1L | 80.9%47 games · 38W 6D 3L |
| Led but failed to win / won from behindgames | 24 / 16 | 24 / 12 |
| Goals by substitutes% of team goals | 16.4 43/262 | 17.6 33/187 |
| Games with 3+ yellow cardsWin rate | +6.6p49 games · 28W 10D 11L · usual 50.5% | +16.4p41 games · 18W 7D 16L · usual 27.5% |
| Penalties won / concededper game | 0.14 / 0.12 | 0.13 / 0.10 |
| Goals for / against from 76th minute% of all goals | 17.8 / 25.8 | 22.5 / 25.4 |
| Failed to score / clean sheets% | 15.9 / 28.3 | 29.0 / 24.1 |
C. Shots and defensive shape 2026-27 5 games this season, averages · last season shown as totals
| items | Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Shots inside / outside the boxper game | 6 / 4.2 | 10.6 / 4.2 |
| Shots blockedper game | 2.2 | 3 |
| Shots faced / on target / inside boxper game | 15.2 / 4.4 / 8 | 15.2 / 5.2 / 9.4 |
| Keeper saves / goals preventedper game · goals prevented | 3.8 / 0.99 | 3.4 / 0.64 |
| Corners won / concededper game | 3.6 / 6 | 4.6 / 5 |
| Offsides / fouls wonper game | 2.8 / 10.4 | 1.8 / 13.2 |
| Passes / accuracyper game / % | 448 / 85.5 | 506 / 85.5 |
| 2025-26 xG → goalsseason total | 57.9 → 60 +2.1 | 43.5 → 47 +3.5 |
| 2025-26 xGA → concededseason total | 50.1 → 54 +3.9 | 43.5 → 46 +2.5 |
Order is always home team (Monaco) then away team (Toulouse) · usual = the team's overall league win rate over the same window · ±p = percentage-point gap · fewer than 10 games shown faded and marked sample too small · the small W D L figures are the raw record behind each win rate (draws do not count as wins)
D. Win rate by player involvement League games only (cups and European games excluded) · all games since the player's first appearance for the club (from 2017-18 at the earliest) · pick a player to see the team's win rate when they started, came off the bench, or did not play, plus their record against this opponent · did not play = unused sub or not in the squad · fewer than 10 games shown faded
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
vs Toulouse · when playing —
Games: · · ·
League games only · cups and Europe excluded · win rate = wins ÷ games
vs Monaco · when playing —
Games: · · ·
05How the numbers are compiled
- Source
- API-Football (fixtures, line-ups, events, stats) · Open-Meteo (weather, forecast) · Wikimedia (crests)
- Sample
- Ligue 1 2017-18 to 2026-27 · some conditions since 2022-23 · minimum 10 games (faded and marked below that)
- Match scope
- Conditional stats use league games only · last five games, streaks and rest days use all competitions · win rate = wins ÷ games · usual = league win rate over the same window · home team first
- Updated
- 2026.09.29 10:24 UK
This article summarises historical match data. It does not predict, guarantee or recommend any outcome.